4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
@
ATL Home

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

CAR
42.9%
ATL
57.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CAR offense: -0.082 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.115 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.110 vs Sam Darnold (CAR) -0.075 EPA/dropback
  • CAR defense: -0.148 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CAR 21
–
ATL 22
Projected margin: ATL by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CAR

Darryl Johnson DE Out Hamstring
Terrace Marshall WR Out Concussion
C.J. Henderson CB Questionable Shoulder
Shaq Thompson LB Questionable Foot

ATL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 19
–
ATL 13

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:35 FG ATL (13:35) 7-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. CAR 0 – ATL 3
  • Q1 06:17 FG CAR (6:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 14:06 TD ATL (14:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-C.Patterson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-D.Jones]. CAR 3 – ATL 9
  • Q2 09:18 FG CAR (9:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 6 – ATL 10
  • Q2 00:05 FG CAR (:05) 5-Z.Gonzalez 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 9 – ATL 10
  • Q3 03:37 FG CAR (3:37) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards. CAR 12 – ATL 10
  • Q4 06:35 TD CAR (6:35) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 18 – ATL 10
  • Q4 00:21 FG ATL (:21) 7-Y.Koo 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt. CAR 19 – ATL 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 12 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 81%

    (13:35) 7-Y.Koo 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 9 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (6:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:56) 12-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to CAR 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 7 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:32) 10-L.Edwards punts 49 yards to ATL 31, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams to ATL 39 for 8 yards (50-J.Stanford; 45-G.Ricci).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 33
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 71%

    (9:18) 5-Z.Gonzalez 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 40%

    (5:33) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 84-C.Patterson to CAR 44 for 1 yard (7-S.Thompson).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 30%

    (1:51) 10-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to ATL 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (:32) 12-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CAR 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (12:22) 12-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to CAR 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (3:37) 5-Z.Gonzalez 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-10-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 82%

    (14:15) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:12) 12-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to CAR 37, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 5 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:22) 10-L.Edwards punts 46 yards to ATL 12, Center-44-J.Jansen. 35-A.Williams to ATL 25 for 13 yards (57-C.Johnston).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 84 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (:57) 10-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to ATL 40, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.