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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 78

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 6

What Actually Happened

(:32) 12-D.Colquitt punts 51 yards to CAR 27, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.36 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 35, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model