Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 9

(12:22) 12-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to CAR 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.09 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.98 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model