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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 27

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Carolina Panthers 12

What Actually Happened

(14:15) 7-Y.Koo 45 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-12-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.37 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 37, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP