Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 19 – Atlanta Falcons 10

(:57) 10-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to ATL 40, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.40 EP
62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 84, worth -2.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model