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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 72

Atlanta Falcons 3 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:56) 12-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to CAR 17, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.89 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 72, worth -4.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 30, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model