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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 75

New York Jets 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 7

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CIN 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.62 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 32, worth -1.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model