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CIN Away

Cincinnati Bengals

HC Zac Taylor
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US 🌧 Rain Spread -11.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CIN
69.5%
NYJ
30.5%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.207 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Mike White (NYJ) -0.006 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.235 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Mike White in place of Zach Wilson)
  • CIN offense: +0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.090 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
  • CIN defense: -0.064 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Mike White (NYJ) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

CIN 25
–
NYJ 19
Projected margin: CIN by 6 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

CIN

Chris Evans RB Out Hamstring
Auden Tate WR Questionable Thigh

NYJ

Tevin Coleman RB Out Hamstring
Bryce Huff DE Out Back
Trevon Wesco TE Out Knee
Zach Wilson QB Out Knee
Corey Davis WR Doubtful Hip
Ashtyn Davis S Questionable Shoulder
Tyler Kroft TE Questionable Back
Shaq Lawson DE Questionable Wrist
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 31
–
NYJ 34

Prediction missed by 9 pts on margin, 21 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:44 TD NYJ (8:44) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter left end for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD CIN (15:00) (Shotgun) 28-J.Mixon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 6 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 03:27 TD CIN (3:27) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 1-J.Chase for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 13 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 01:54 FG CIN (1:54) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 17 – NYJ 7
  • Q2 00:19 TD NYJ (:19) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 10-B.Berrios for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 17 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 05:20 FG NYJ (5:20) 6-M.Ammendola 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. CIN 17 – NYJ 17
  • Q3 03:17 TD CIN (3:17) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 28-J.Mixon for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 23 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 12:31 FG NYJ (12:31) 6-M.Ammendola 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. CIN 24 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 07:36 TD CIN (7:36) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 83-T.Boyd for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 30 – NYJ 20
  • Q4 04:43 TD NYJ (4:43) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 25-T.Johnson pushed ob at CIN 2 for 17 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither). New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short left to 25-T.Johnson for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 31 – NYJ 26
  • Q4 03:50 TD NYJ (3:50) (Shotgun) 5-M.White pass short middle to 81-T.Kroft for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 31 – NYJ 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (7:24) 10-K.Huber punts 47 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-C.Harris, downed by CIN-59-A.Davis-Gaither.

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (2:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at NYJ 15 for -12 yards (95-Q.Williams).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 61%

    (11:30) 6-M.Ammendola 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 18 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (8:56) 10-K.Huber punts 45 yards to NYJ 19, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (7:29) 4-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CIN 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 98%

    (1:54) 2-E.McPherson 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 25%

    (12:22) 10-K.Huber punts 38 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (5:20) 6-M.Ammendola 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 98%

    (12:31) 6-M.Ammendola 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 19 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:19) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to NYJ 5, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 21 for 16 yards (40-B.Wilson; 49-J.Bachie).