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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 6

New York Jets 14 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(5:20) 6-M.Ammendola 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +3.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 6, worth +0.28 EP
KICK +2.15 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.89 EP