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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 19 at the 60

Cincinnati Bengals 31 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(2:19) 10-K.Huber punts 55 yards to NYJ 5, Center-46-C.Harris. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 21 for 16 yards (40-B.Wilson; 49-J.Bachie).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.49 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 60, worth -2.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 19, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model