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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 3 at the 3

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at NYJ 15 for -12 yards (95-Q.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +2.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.85 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth +0.02 EP
KICK +1.86 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model