Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 80

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:50) 14-A.Lee punts 62 yards to GB 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 35 for 17 yards (84-D.Harris, 52-V.Dimukeje). PENALTY on GB-86-M.Taylor, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model