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Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
@
ARI Home

Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
Thursday 2021-10-28 · 20:20 State Farm Stadium, Glendale US ☀️ Clear Spread 6.5 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

GB
32.6%
ARI
67.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • ARI offense: +0.159 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to ARI: Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.292 vs Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.166 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

GB 21
–
ARI 29
Projected margin: ARI by 8 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

GB

Dennis Kelly T Doubtful Back
Kevin King CB Questionable Shoulder
Preston Smith LB Questionable Oblique

ARI

J.J. Watt DE Out Shoulder
Max Garcia C Questionable Achilles
DeAndre Hopkins WR Questionable Hamstring
Rashard Lawrence DT Questionable Calf
Darrell Daniels TE Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 24
–
ARI 21

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:21 TD ARI (6:21) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 2-C.Edmonds. 2-C.Edmonds up the middle for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – ARI 6
  • Q2 12:59 TD GB (12:59) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – ARI 7
  • Q2 06:28 FG GB (6:28) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez. GB 10 – ARI 7
  • Q3 11:42 TD GB (11:42) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short right to 18-R.Cobb for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ARI-97-J.Phillips, Roughing the Passer, 15 yards, enforced between downs. GB 16 – ARI 7
  • Q3 06:26 TD ARI (6:26) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 17 – ARI 13
  • Q4 15:00 TD GB (15:00) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short middle to 18-R.Cobb for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 23 – ARI 14
  • Q4 10:50 TD ARI (10:50) (Shotgun) 6-J.Conner up the middle for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 24 – ARI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:06) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 58 yards to ARI 13, Center-43-H.Bradley. 4-R.Moore ran ob at ARI 13 for no gain.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (11:22) 14-A.Lee punts 49 yards to GB 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 25 for 8 yards (29-J.Ward). FUMBLES (29-J.Ward), recovered by GB-42-O.Burks at GB 22.

  • Q1 GB 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (10:12) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to ARI 23, Center-43-H.Bradley. 4-R.Moore to ARI 37 for 14 yards (28-A.Dillon).

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 28-A.Dillon up the middle to ARI 11 for 2 yards (58-J.Hicks).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:50) 14-A.Lee punts 62 yards to GB 18, Center-46-A.Brewer. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 35 for 17 yards (84-D.Harris, 52-V.Dimukeje). PENALTY on GB-86-M.Taylor, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at GB 25.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 7 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 29%

    (6:52) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to ARI 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-T.Summers. Green Bay challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to ARI 13, Center-43-H.Bradley. 4-R.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-44-T.Summers at ARI 3.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.84 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (6:28) 2-M.Crosby 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 5 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (4:37) 14-A.Lee punts 55 yards to GB 16, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 27%

    (:05) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle (34-J.Thompson) [45-D.Gardeck].

  • Q3 GB 4th & 3 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (12:28) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass short left to 19-E.St. Brown to ARI 2 for 5 yards (20-M.Wilson).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 25%

    (9:22) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-A.Wesley to GB 46 for 7 yards (21-E.Stokes).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 56%

    (13:17) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short right to 86-Z.Ertz to GB 31 for 9 yards (29-R.Douglas).

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 99%

    (3:26) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete short right to 18-R.Cobb (42-D.Kennard).