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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 48 yards to ARI 3, Center-43-H.Bradley, downed by GB-44-T.Summers. Green Bay challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 7-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to ARI 13, Center-43-H.Bradley. 4-R.Moore MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by GB-44-T.Summers at ARI 3.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.94 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 51, worth -2.95 EP
KICK -1.68 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.48 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model