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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 12 at the 52

Green Bay Packers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:05) (Shotgun) 12-Aa.Rodgers pass incomplete deep middle (34-J.Thompson) [45-D.Gardeck].

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.39 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 52, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.56 EP