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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 4 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:22) 14-A.Lee punts 49 yards to GB 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 8-Am.Rodgers to GB 25 for 8 yards (29-J.Ward). FUMBLES (29-J.Ward), recovered by GB-42-O.Burks at GB 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.41 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model