Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 19 at the 84

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 24

What Actually Happened

(9:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to LA 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-T.Atwell to LA 31 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis). LA-15-T.Atwell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on LA-87-J.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 31.

The Three Options

GO -3.19 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
76% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model