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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
@
HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC David Culley
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -17.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

LA
84.0%
HOU
16.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LA offense: +0.195 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • QB edge to LA: Davis Mills (HOU) -0.201 vs Matthew Stafford (LA) +0.396 EPA/dropback
  • HOU offense: -0.217 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • HOU defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

LA 30
–
HOU 18
Projected margin: LA by 12 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

LA

DeSean Jackson WR Out Not injury related - resting player
Sebastian Joseph DT Out Chest
Andrew Whitworth T Out Knee
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Illness
Jordan Fuller S Questionable Knee
Robert Rochell CB Questionable Knee

HOU

Deshaun Watson QB Out Not injury related - personal matter
Pharaoh Brown TE Questionable Thigh
Justin Britt C Questionable Knee
Jaleel Johnson DT Questionable Back
Christian Kirksey LB Questionable Thumb
Justin McCray C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LA 38
–
HOU 22

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:36 TD LA (9:36) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 27-D.Henderson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 6 – HOU 0
  • Q2 08:54 FG LA (8:54) 8-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker. LA 10 – HOU 0
  • Q2 06:13 TD LA (6:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short middle to 2-R.Woods for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – HOU 0
  • Q2 00:32 TD LA (:32) 27-D.Henderson left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – HOU 0
  • Q3 07:59 TD LA (7:59) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 10-C.Kupp for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 30 – HOU 0
  • Q3 00:08 TD LA (:08) 2-R.Woods left end for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 37 – HOU 0
  • Q4 08:10 TD HOU (8:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 28-R.Burkhead up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 38 – HOU 6
  • Q4 05:06 TD HOU (5:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass deep left to 13-B.Cooks for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 38 – HOU 13
  • Q4 02:39 TD HOU (2:39) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass short left to 9-B.Jordan for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 38 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:06) 11-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to LA 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 1 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 98%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 27-D.Henderson.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 87
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (13:30) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to LA 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%

    (8:54) 8-M.Gay 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (13:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 63 yards to LA 15, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-T.Atwell to LA 15 for no gain (24-T.Smith).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (11:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to HOU 25, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 89-D.Amendola.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (9:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 53 yards to LA 31, Center-46-J.Weeks. 15-T.Atwell to LA 31 for no gain (57-K.Pierre-Louis). LA-15-T.Atwell was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PENALTY on LA-87-J.Harris, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 31.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (6:02) 11-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to LA 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (14:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to LA 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 10 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:11) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to HOU 40, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 24-T.Smith.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 6 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (6:32) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to HOU 37, Center-42-M.Orzech. 24-T.Smith to HOU 38 for 1 yard (33-N.Scott).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 37 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 66%

    (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to HOU 2, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.