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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 82

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 31

What Actually Happened

(6:02) 11-C.Johnston punts 59 yards to LA 23, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -3.16 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.50 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model