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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 37

Los Angeles Rams 38 – Houston Texans 22

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 35 yards to HOU 2, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-18-B.Skowronek.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP