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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 55

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(5:06) 11-C.Johnston punts 30 yards to LA 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.18 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 55, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model