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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 3

Los Angeles Rams 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:27) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 27-D.Henderson.

The Three Options

GO +4.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 3, worth +0.09 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model