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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 87

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Rams 7

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to LA 35, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 86, worth +0.55 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 87, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.07 EP