Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q2
New England Patriots
4th & 1 at the 1
New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14
What Actually Happened
(8:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.
The Three Options
GO
+4.24 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
- 35% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 1, worth +1.02 EP
KICK
+1.99 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT
+0.25 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.25 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
