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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 16:05 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

NE
40.0%
LAC
60.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: +0.097 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LAC on 7 more days rest than NE
  • LAC defense: +0.059 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): +0.148 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • NE offense: +0.019 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NE 23
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 4 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NE

Brandon King LB Out Thigh
David Andrews C Questionable Ankle
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Ribs
Kendrick Bourne WR Questionable Shoulder
Carl Davis DT Questionable Hand
Kyle Dugger S Questionable Neck
Nick Folk K Questionable left Knee
Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Finger
Dont'a Hightower LB Questionable Ankle
Shaquille Mason G Questionable Abdomen
Jonnu Smith TE Questionable Shoulder
Josh Uche LB Questionable Shoulder
Kyle Van Noy LB Questionable Groin
Shaun Wade CB Questionable Concussion
Deatrich Wise DE Questionable Knee

LAC

Austin Ekeler RB Questionable Hip
Drue Tranquill LB Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 27
–
LAC 24

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:03 TD LAC (11:03) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – LAC 6
  • Q1 06:31 TD NE (6:31) 37-D.Harris left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 6 – LAC 7
  • Q2 12:40 TD LAC (12:40) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 7 – LAC 13
  • Q2 03:33 FG NE (3:33) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 10 – LAC 14
  • Q2 00:15 FG NE (:15) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 13 – LAC 14
  • Q3 03:44 FG NE (3:44) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 16 – LAC 14
  • Q3 00:44 FG LAC (:44) 6-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. NE 16 – LAC 17
  • Q4 10:20 TD NE (10:20) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short right intended for 87-J.Cook INTERCEPTED by 21-A.Phillips at LAC 26. 21-A.Phillips for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – LAC 17
  • Q4 02:23 FG NE (2:23) 6-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. NE 27 – LAC 17
  • Q4 00:47 TD LAC (:47) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass deep right to 5-J.Palmer for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 27 – LAC 23

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 98%

    (11:44) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to NE 5 for 2 yards (23-K.Dugger; 91-D.Wise).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (2:55) 1-T.Long punts 52 yards to NE 8, Center-54-M.Overton. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NE 29 for 21 yards (82-S.Anderson).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 12 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to LAC 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (8:39) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 92
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 55%

    (7:04) 1-T.Long punts 50 yards to NE 42, Center-54-M.Overton. 80-G.Olszewski to LAC 36 for 22 yards (31-N.Niemann).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (3:33) 6-N.Folk 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (2:26) 1-T.Long punts 49 yards to NE 22, Center-54-M.Overton. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 32 for 10 yards (54-M.Overton).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (1:50) 7-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to LAC 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 80%

    (:15) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 8 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:01) 1-T.Long punts 50 yards to NE 12, Center-54-M.Overton. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NE 39 for 27 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 80%

    (3:44) 6-N.Folk 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 80%

    (:44) 6-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (13:38) 7-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to LAC 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 17 for 12 yards (43-C.Munson). PENALTY on LAC-36-T.Marshall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:22) 1-T.Long punts 39 yards to NE 34, Center-54-M.Overton, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 11 at the 12 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 96%

    (2:23) 6-N.Folk 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.