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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 92

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:04) 1-T.Long punts 50 yards to NE 42, Center-54-M.Overton. 80-G.Olszewski to LAC 36 for 22 yards (31-N.Niemann).

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 88, worth +0.01 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 92, worth -5.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.92 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 50, worth -2.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP