Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 66

New England Patriots 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

(1:50) 7-J.Bailey punts 38 yards to LAC 28, Center-49-J.Cardona, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.01 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model