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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 7

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(11:44) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to NE 5 for 2 yards (23-K.Dugger; 91-D.Wise).

The Three Options

GO +3.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.74 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 7, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.29 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model