4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 62

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 1-T.Long punts 50 yards to NE 12, Center-54-M.Overton. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NE 39 for 27 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 62, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model