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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 30

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(:44) 6-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.38 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 30, worth -1.19 EP
KICK +1.36 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 40, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model