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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 67

New England Patriots 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

What Actually Happened

(13:38) 7-J.Bailey punts 62 yards to LAC 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 7-A.Roberts to LAC 17 for 12 yards (43-C.Munson). PENALTY on LAC-36-T.Marshall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at LAC 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.54 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP