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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 60

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 1-T.Long punts 52 yards to NE 8, Center-54-M.Overton. 80-G.Olszewski pushed ob at NE 29 for 21 yards (82-S.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.34 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 19, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model