Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 60

New England Patriots 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

(15:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 46 yards to LAC 14, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 7-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.40 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.67 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 60, worth -3.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model