Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 73

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – New York Giants 7

What Actually Happened

(13:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to NYG 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Pettis MUFFS catch, recovered by NYG-31-K.Crossen at NYG 15. NYG-13-D.Pettis was injured during the play. He is Out.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.90 EP
57% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model