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New York Giants

HC Joe Judge
@
KC Home

Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
Monday 2021-11-01 · 20:15 GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City US 🌧 Rain Spread 10.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

NYG
35.6%
KC
64.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • KC defense: +0.189 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • KC offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Patrick Mahomes (KC): +0.226 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYG defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.022 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
KC 28
Projected margin: KC by 6 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

NYG

Saquon Barkley RB Out Ankle
Lorenzo Carter LB Out Ankle
Carter Coughlin LB Out Ankle
Nate Ebner S Out Ankle
Kenny Golladay WR Out Knee
Kaden Smith TE Questionable Knee
Sterling Shepard WR Questionable Hamstring
Kadarius Toney WR Questionable Ankle

KC

Anthony Hitchens LB Out Triceps
Khalen Saunders DT Out Knee
Mike Remmers T Questionable Knee
Charvarius Ward CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 17
–
KC 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:19 TD KC (6:19) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 10-T.Hill for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – KC 6
  • Q2 14:19 TD NYG (14:19) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 80-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – KC 7
  • Q2 06:42 TD KC (6:42) 40-D.Gore left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 7 – KC 13
  • Q2 02:48 FG NYG (2:48) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon. NYG 10 – KC 14
  • Q4 14:57 TD NYG (14:57) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 88-E.Engram for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 16 – KC 14
  • Q4 08:56 FG KC (8:56) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. NYG 17 – KC 17
  • Q4 01:12 FG KC (1:12) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend. NYG 17 – KC 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (4:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to KC 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q1 KC 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:24) 5-T.Townsend punts 50 yards to NYG 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 13-D.Pettis.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 99%

    (14:19) 8-D.Jones pass short left to 80-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (13:30) 5-T.Townsend punts 58 yards to NYG 15, Center-41-J.Winchester. 13-D.Pettis MUFFS catch, recovered by NYG-31-K.Crossen at NYG 15. NYG-13-D.Pettis was injured during the play. He is Out.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (12:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 2 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (2:48) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 15 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:46) 5-T.Townsend punts 52 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 89-K.Toney to NYG 11 for no gain (85-M.Kemp). PENALTY on KC-85-M.Kemp, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at NYG 11.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (12:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 15, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown. PENALTY on KC-90-J.Reed, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.

  • Q3 KC 4th & 8 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (9:45) 5-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to NYG 18, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 89-K.Toney.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 24%

    (7:40) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to KC 19, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 15 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (8:56) 7-H.Butker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 7 at the 58 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (4:49) 9-R.Dixon punts 34 yards to KC 24, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-47-C.Brown. PENALTY on NYG-47-C.Brown, Illegal Touch Kick, 5 yards, enforced at KC 24.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 16 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%

    (1:12) 7-H.Butker 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-5-T.Townsend.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 32%

    (:35) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 14 for -6 yards (55-F.Clark). FUMBLES (55-F.Clark) [55-F.Clark], recovered by NYG-69-B.Price at NYG 15.