Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 83

New York Giants 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

(12:31) 9-R.Dixon punts 51 yards to KC 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

The Three Options

GO -2.58 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.68 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model