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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 5

New York Giants 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 5-G.Gano 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +3.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.12 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 5, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.50 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP