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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 70

New York Giants 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 45 yards to KC 25, Center-58-C.Kreiter, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.00 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 28, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model