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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 43

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to PHI 4, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.

The Three Options

GO +0.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.79 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.05 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP