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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

PHI
57.5%
DET
42.5%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.182 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • Jared Goff (DET): -0.072 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • DET offense: -0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • PHI defense: +0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
DET 21
Projected margin: PHI by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

PHI

Zech McPhearson CB Out Hamstring
Miles Sanders RB Out Ankle
Anthony Harris S Doubtful Hands
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside WR Questionable Back

DET

Trey Flowers LB Questionable Knee
Jerry Jacobs CB Questionable Illness
A.J. Parker CB Questionable Neck
D'Andre Swift RB Questionable Groin
Jamaal Williams RB Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 44
–
DET 6

Prediction missed by 36 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:14 TD PHI (3:14) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott right tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – DET 0
  • Q2 12:55 FG PHI (12:55) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 10 – DET 0
  • Q2 02:55 TD PHI (2:55) (Shotgun) 24-J.Howard up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 16 – DET 0
  • Q3 09:07 TD PHI (9:07) (Shotgun) 35-B.Scott up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-34-A.Anzalone, Illegal Use of Hands, declined. PHI 23 – DET 0
  • Q3 01:24 TD PHI (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-J.Howard left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 30 – DET 0
  • Q3 01:20 TD PHI (1:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 32-D.Swift to DET 33 for 8 yards (29-A.Maddox) [90-R.Kerrigan]. FUMBLES (29-A.Maddox), RECOVERED by PHI-2-D.Slay at DET 33. 2-D.Slay for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 37 – DET 0
  • Q4 09:57 FG PHI (9:57) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 41 – DET 0
  • Q4 07:20 TD DET (7:20) 28-J.Jefferson up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 41 – DET 6
  • Q4 01:54 FG PHI (1:54) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 44 – DET 6

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 51%

    (13:02) 3-J.Fox punts 39 yards to PHI 4, Center-47-S.Daly, downed by DET-18-K.Hodge.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 91
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 51%

    (12:06) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to DET 44, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-K.Raymond to PHI 45 for 11 yards (24-J.Howard).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 82%

    (8:41) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 87%

    (12:55) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 22
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 90%

    (:13) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff sacked at PHI 26 for -4 yards (93-M.Williams).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 11 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 54%

    (6:07) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 11-K.Raymond.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (14:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown (23-R.McLeod) [97-J.Hargrave].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (9:57) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 93%

    (7:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 88-T.Hockenson pushed ob at PHI 8 for 10 yards (22-M.Epps).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 89%

    (1:54) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 35-G.Igwebuike up the middle to DET 34 for 4 yards (52-D.Taylor; 95-M.Tuipulotu).