Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 69

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 38

(14:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short middle to 14-A.St. Brown (23-R.McLeod) [97-J.Hargrave].

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

What Happened

50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
50% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model