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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 8

Philadelphia Eagles 38 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 4-J.Elliott 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 8, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP