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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 18

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 41

What Actually Happened

(7:53) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 88-T.Hockenson pushed ob at PHI 8 for 10 yards (22-M.Epps).

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.00 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 18, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 28, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model