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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 70

Detroit Lions 6 – Philadelphia Eagles 44

What Actually Happened

(:15) (Shotgun) 35-G.Igwebuike up the middle to DET 34 for 4 yards (52-D.Taylor; 95-M.Tuipulotu).

The Three Options

GO -0.20 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +0.19 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -1.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model