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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 29

Detroit Lions 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(8:41) 4-A.Seibert 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.72 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model