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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 25

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(12:55) 4-J.Elliott 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.26 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 35, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP