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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 13 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(9:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 63 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-49-M.Adams.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -3.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model