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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
Sunday 2021-10-31 · 13:00 Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 51.0

Win Probability

TEN
46.4%
IND
53.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TEN offense: +0.099 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • IND offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TEN 21
–
IND 24
Projected margin: IND by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 8

TEN

Khari Blasingame FB Out Knee
Darrynton Evans RB Out Knee
Julio Jones WR Out Hamstring
Rashaan Evans LB Questionable Ankle
Kendall Lamm T Questionable Ankle
Chris Jackson CB Questionable Foot
Teair Tart DT Questionable Groin

IND

Thakarius Keyes CB Out Hamstring
T.Y. Hilton WR Questionable Quadricep
Xavier Rhodes CB Questionable Calf
Braden Smith T Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 8 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 34
–
IND 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 20 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:45 TD IND (8:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 6
  • Q1 07:49 TD IND (7:49) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short right to 11-M.Pittman for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 0 – IND 13
  • Q2 12:10 TD TEN (12:10) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 87-G.Swaim for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 6 – IND 14
  • Q2 04:24 TD TEN (4:24) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 11-A.Brown for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 13 – IND 14
  • Q2 00:03 FG IND (:03) 6-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. TEN 14 – IND 17
  • Q3 07:46 TD TEN (7:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short middle to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 20 – IND 17
  • Q3 01:25 TD IND (1:25) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 84-J.Doyle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 21 – IND 23
  • Q4 11:20 FG TEN (11:20) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 24 – IND 24
  • Q4 01:33 TD TEN (1:33) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle INTERCEPTED by 24-E.Molden [48-B.Dupree] at IND 2. 24-E.Molden for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 30 – IND 24
  • Q4 00:25 TD IND (:25) Direct snap to 21-N.Hines. 28-J.Taylor right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 31 – IND 30
  • Q5 04:08 FG TEN (4:08) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. TEN 34 – IND 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 56%

    (12:42) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 21-N.Hines to TEN 32 for 6 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (8:45) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short middle to 11-M.Pittman for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:14) 6-B.Kern punts 50 yards to IND 21, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 32 for 11 yards (49-N.Dzubnar, 42-Jo.Jones).

  • Q1 IND 4th & 3 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 51%

    (2:59) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass incomplete deep left to 11-M.Pittman.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 13 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:26) 8-R.Sanchez punts 63 yards to TEN 8, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-49-M.Adams.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%

    (:03) 6-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 32%

    (11:36) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill right end pushed ob at IND 34 for 13 yards (30-G.Odum).

  • Q3 IND 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 13 for 2 yards (16-A.Dulin).

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 2 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (3:52) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to IND 27, Center-46-M.Cox. 21-N.Hines to IND 43 for 16 yards (92-O.Adeniyi, 49-N.Dzubnar).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 3 at the 28
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 80%

    (11:20) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 16 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 46%

    (5:35) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to TEN 7, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers pushed ob at TEN 26 for 19 yards (44-Z.Franklin).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 1 at the 50 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 26%

    (3:22) 22-D.Henry left end pushed ob at IND 49 for 1 yard (23-K.Moore).

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 45 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 38%

    (1:39) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to IND 8, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.