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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-M.Badgley 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +2.83 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 16, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model