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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 57

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Tennessee Titans 21

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 8-R.Sanchez punts 46 yards to TEN 11, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 13 for 2 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.80 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model